JOURNAL OF APPLIED BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS
Regime-switching Volatility of Stock Returns
and Exchange Rates in Latin America
Author(s): Ricardo Tovar-Silos
Citation: Ricardo Tovar-Silos, (2017) "Regime-switching Volatility of Stock Returns and Exchange Rates in Latin America," Journal of Applied Business and Economics, Vol. 19, Iss.10, pp.25-47
Article Type: Research paper
Publisher: North American Business Press
Abstract:
A SWARCH model was applied to the stock returns and exchange rates of Brazil, Chile and Mexico. Two
volatility states are present and the high volatility periods were identified and dated. The length of the
high volatility period was greater for stock returns during the financial crises of the nineties whereas
during the global financial crisis exchange rates experienced a longer period of high volatility. The
European sovereign debt crisis and the end of the Fed’s QE program caused high volatility on the
exchange rates only. The degree of concordance between the high volatility regimes of stock returns and
exchange rates is low in the three countries and only Brazil reported a significant positive correlation
between the states.