JOURNAL OF APPLIED BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS
Does Crowd Out Hamper Government Stimulus Programs In Recessions?
Author(s): John J. Heim
Citation: John J. Heim, (2012) "Does Crowd Out Hamper Government Stimulus Programs In Recessions?," Vol. 13, Iss. 2, pp. 11 - 27
Article Type: Research paper
Publisher: North American Business Press
Abstract:
In well controlled statistical tests, crowd out was found related to government deficits financed by borrowing. Roughly equal effects were found for both recession and non-recession periods. Tax cut deficits were found were found more detrimental than spending deficits Private borrowing systematically declined with the growth of government deficits, and explained most variation in consumer and investment spending. Crowd out may be avoided by foreign borrowing or if M2 money increases prior to the deficit. These findings offer a plausible explanation for the failure of recent U.S. government stimulus programs to offset the 2008 recession.