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JOURNAL OF APPLIED BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS

Estimating Parameters of the 1918-19 Influenza Epidemic on U.S. Military Bases

Author(s): Kyongsei Sohn, Bryan L. Boulier

Citation: Kyongsei Sohn, Bryan L. Boulier, (2012) "Estimating Parameters of the 1918-19 Influenza Epidemic on U.S. Military Bases," Vol. 13, Iss. 4, pp. 30-42

Article Type: Research paper

Publisher: North American Business Press

Abstract:

An occasional shift in the influenza virus generates a new variant, posing potential threat of a deadly

epidemic. This type of shift occurred with the 1918-19 flu with devastating consequences in the U.S. and

worldwide. Using newly developed data from 18 U.S. military establishments during the 1918-19 flu

epidemic, we estimate parameters of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Asymptomatic-Removed

epidemic model. Our estimates show considerable variation in the value of the infectivity parameter

across bases. This variation is uncorrelated with base size or beginning date of the epidemic. Results

indicate that the epidemic on U.S. military bases was more infectious than those of in England and Wales.