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JOURNAL OF ACCOUNTING AND FINANCE
The 2012 U.S. Presidential Election: Did Markets Matter?
Author(s): David A. Walker
Citation: David A. Walker, (2013) "The 2012 U.S. Presidential Election: Did Markets Matter?," Journal of Accounting and Finance, Vol. 13, Iss. 5, pp. 49 - 62
Article Type: Research paper
Publisher: North American Business Press
Abstract:
The 2012 presidential opinion polls just before Election Day and economic models predicted a close
popular vote. Using models estimated through 2008, 2012 presidential election vote shares are simulated
with reasonable assumptions and actual results for economic growth rates, rates of inflation, and
parameters known on Election Day. This study presents a Financial Markets Model and its expected
increasing role on future president elections. The Market Model forecasts the incumbent Democrat to win
the popular vote by 0.84 percent less than the actual result if the economy the public experienced had
been reflected by the actual GDP growth data.
